Le Havre AC vs AJ Auxerre

Sunday, 18 October 2026 at 15:15

Win probability

38%

Le Havre AC wins

27%

Draw

35%

AJ Auxerre wins

xG Home

1.31

Le Havre AC

Blowout %

29%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.24

AJ Auxerre

Analysis

Our model puts a Le Havre AC win at 38.1% in this Ligue 1 fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.31 to 1.24.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,941 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.8% of the time — 717 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 1.8 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Market odds

2.35

Le Havre AC

3.45

Draw

3.05

AJ Auxerre

Published 16 October 2026 · aleavici-football

Signed export