Kocaelispor vs Goztepe
Our model puts a Kocaelispor win at 39.2% in this Süper Lig fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.42 to 1.33.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,941 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.8% of the time — 717 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 1.8 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
The ratings gap
Goztepe carry a rating of 1525 against 1426 for Kocaelispor, a gap of 99 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Goztepe's attack should find room against Kocaelispor's defence, by 133 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Kocaelispor are off their season peak
Kocaelispor peaked at 1500 this season and sit at 1426 today, 74 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.
How often they shoot
Kocaelispor manage 9.4 shots a match, against an average of 11.9. A side that shoots this rarely has to take what it gets, which makes its scoring lumpier than its quality.
Behind the defence
76.7% of the shots on target Kocaelispor face do not end up in the net, against 67.3% for the sides we measure. That is a keeper and a defence having a good run of it — and a figure that tends to drift back toward the middle, which is worth remembering before reading too much into it.