Kasimpasa vs Samsunspor
Our model puts a Kasimpasa win at 46.7% in this Süper Lig fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.53 to 1.11.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,941 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 47% of the time — 596 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 2.5 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Evenly rated
There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1544 against 1572, a gap of 28 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Samsunspor's attack should find room against Kasimpasa's defence, by 102 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
How often they shoot
Samsunspor take 14.8 shots a match against an average of 11.9. Volume like that usually means territory rather than precision, and it is why a side can dominate a match and still not win it.
A disciplinary record worth knowing
Kasimpasa collect 3.2 cards a match, on 14.6 fouls a match, against an average of 2.2. Cards are the one thing here that can change a match rather than describe it: a sending-off rewrites every number on this page.