Houston Dynamo FC vs FC Dallas

Sunday, 18 October 2026 at 00:30

Win probability

43%

Houston Dynamo FC wins

25%

Draw

32%

FC Dallas wins

xG Home

1.53

Houston Dynamo FC

Blowout %

39%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.28

FC Dallas

Analysis

Our model puts a Houston Dynamo FC win at 42.8% in this MLS fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.53 to 1.28.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,941 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.8% of the time — 717 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 1.8 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Evenly rated

There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1524 against 1525, a gap of 1 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.

Market odds

2.15

Houston Dynamo FC

3.40

Draw

3.10

FC Dallas

Published 16 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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