Grêmio vs Cruzeiro

Sunday, 18 October 2026 at 19:00

Win probability

32%

Grêmio wins

25%

Draw

43%

Cruzeiro wins

xG Home

1.35

Grêmio

Blowout %

32%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.61

Cruzeiro

Analysis

Our model puts a Cruzeiro win at 43.4% in this Brasileirao fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.35 to 1.61.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,941 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.8% of the time — 717 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 1.8 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Market odds

2.80

Grêmio

3.45

Draw

2.35

Cruzeiro

Published 16 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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