Fluminense vs Santos

Sunday, 18 October 2026 at 19:00

Win probability

45%

Fluminense wins

25%

Draw

30%

Santos wins

xG Home

1.60

Fluminense

Blowout %

38%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.26

Santos

Analysis

Our model puts a Fluminense win at 45.1% in this Brasileirao fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.6 to 1.26.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,941 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 47% of the time — 596 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 2.5 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Evenly rated

There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1517 against 1509, a gap of 8 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.

Market odds

2.15

Fluminense

3.40

Draw

3.25

Santos

Published 16 October 2026 · aleavici-football

Signed export