Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg
Our model puts a Bayer Leverkusen win at 56% in this Bundesliga fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.79 to 0.98.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,941 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 50.7% of the time — 355 fixtures in that band. That is 8.8 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Bayer Leverkusen's attack should find room against SC Freiburg's defence, by 173 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Bayer Leverkusen are on a run
Bayer Leverkusen arrive on 4 straight wins, part of 6 matches unbeaten. Form of that length moves our rating on its own, so it is already reflected in the numbers above rather than being an argument on top of them.
How often they shoot
Bayer Leverkusen take 20.3 shots a match against an average of 11.9. Volume like that usually means territory rather than precision, and it is why a side can dominate a match and still not win it.