Werder Bremen vs SC Paderborn 07
Our model puts a Werder Bremen win at 59.6% in this Bundesliga fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.85 to 0.88.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,941 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 50.7% of the time — 355 fixtures in that band. That is 8.8 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price SC Paderborn 07 at 3.9, which implies about 25.6%. Our model has it at 17.7% — 7.9 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Werder Bremen's attack should find room against SC Paderborn 07's defence, by 115 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Early or late
76.5% of Werder Bremen's goals have come after the break, against 56.2% for the sides we measure, over 17 goals. A side that scores this late is usually one that grows into matches or finishes them stronger than it starts — and one whose half-time score says less than usual about the result.