Venezia vs Napoli
Our model puts a Napoli win at 58% in this Serie A fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 0.89 to 1.78.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,941 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 50.7% of the time — 355 fixtures in that band. That is 8.8 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.
The ratings gap
Napoli carry a rating of 1757 against 1555 for Venezia, a gap of 202 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Napoli's attack should find room against Venezia's defence, by 203 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Venezia are off their season peak
Venezia peaked at 1602 this season and sit at 1555 today, 47 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.
How often they shoot
Venezia take 15.9 shots a match against an average of 11.9. Volume like that usually means territory rather than precision, and it is why a side can dominate a match and still not win it.
Early or late
42.1% of Napoli's goals have come after the break, against 56.2% for the sides we measure, over 19 goals. A side that does its scoring early has more to protect than most, and a lead at the break is likelier to be the story of the match than the first act of it.
Behind the defence
78.6% of the shots on target Napoli face do not end up in the net, against 67.3% for the sides we measure. That is a keeper and a defence having a good run of it — and a figure that tends to drift back toward the middle, which is worth remembering before reading too much into it.