Tijuana vs Puebla

Saturday, 17 October 2026 at 03:05

Win probability

52%

Tijuana wins

24%

Draw

23%

Puebla wins

xG Home

1.69

Tijuana

Blowout %

44%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.04

Puebla

Analysis

Our model puts a Tijuana win at 52.3% in this Liga MX fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.69 to 1.04.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,941 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 47% of the time — 596 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 2.5 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Evenly rated

There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1507 against 1488, a gap of 19 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.

Market odds

1.83

Tijuana

3.75

Draw

4.00

Puebla

Published 16 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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