Swansea City vs West Ham United
Our model puts a West Ham United win at 53.7% in this Championship fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.13 to 1.85.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,941 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 47% of the time — 596 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 2.5 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Swansea City at 3.05, which implies about 32.8%. Our model has it at 23.3% — 9.5 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
The ratings gap
West Ham United carry a rating of 1705 against 1562 for Swansea City, a gap of 143 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, West Ham United's attack should find room against Swansea City's defence, by 165 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Swansea City are on a run
Swansea City arrive on 4 straight wins, part of 4 matches unbeaten. Form of that length moves our rating on its own, so it is already reflected in the numbers above rather than being an argument on top of them.
How often they shoot
West Ham United take 14.7 shots a match against an average of 11.9. Volume like that usually means territory rather than precision, and it is why a side can dominate a match and still not win it.
Early or late
71.4% of West Ham United's goals have come after the break, against 56.2% for the sides we measure, over 28 goals. A side that scores this late is usually one that grows into matches or finishes them stronger than it starts — and one whose half-time score says less than usual about the result.