SV Elversberg vs FC Augsburg
Our model puts a FC Augsburg win at 45.9% in this Bundesliga fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.2 to 1.58.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,941 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 47% of the time — 596 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 2.5 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price SV Elversberg at 2.4, which implies about 41.7%. Our model has it at 29% — 12.7 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
The ratings gap
FC Augsburg carry a rating of 1683 against 1580 for SV Elversberg, a gap of 103 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, FC Augsburg's attack should find room against SV Elversberg's defence, by 154 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Finding the target
FC Augsburg hits the target more often than almost anyone: 45.2% of their shots are on goal over their last matches. The average across the sides we have figures for is 34.1%. Accuracy is not the same as scoring — it says how much of a side's shooting is worth a goalkeeper's attention, which is the part that does not swing as wildly from week to week as goals do.