Schalke 04 vs Mainz
Our model puts a Mainz win at 43% in this Bundesliga fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.24 to 1.5.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,941 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.8% of the time — 717 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 1.8 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
The ratings gap
Mainz carry a rating of 1698 against 1591 for Schalke 04, a gap of 107 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Mainz's attack should find room against Schalke 04's defence, by 144 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
How often they shoot
Mainz take 15.2 shots a match against an average of 11.9. Volume like that usually means territory rather than precision, and it is why a side can dominate a match and still not win it.
Behind the defence
76.5% of the shots on target Schalke 04 face do not end up in the net, against 67.3% for the sides we measure. That is a keeper and a defence having a good run of it — and a figure that tends to drift back toward the middle, which is worth remembering before reading too much into it.