Salford City vs Crawley Town
Our model puts a Salford City win at 68.8% in this League Two fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 2.08 to 0.7.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,941 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 65% and 75% came in 69.9% of the time — 183 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 69.4%, so the two are within 0.5 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
The ratings gap
Salford City carry a rating of 1523 against 1370 for Crawley Town, a gap of 153 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Salford City's attack should find room against Crawley Town's defence, by 99 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Salford City are on a run
Salford City arrive on 4 straight wins, part of 7 matches unbeaten. Form of that length moves our rating on its own, so it is already reflected in the numbers above rather than being an argument on top of them.
Crawley Town are off their season peak
Crawley Town peaked at 1500 this season and sit at 1370 today, 130 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.
Early or late
84.6% of Crawley Town's goals have come after the break, against 56.2% for the sides we measure, over 13 goals. A side that scores this late is usually one that grows into matches or finishes them stronger than it starts — and one whose half-time score says less than usual about the result.
Behind the defence
78.3% of the shots on target Crawley Town face do not end up in the net, against 67.3% for the sides we measure. That is a keeper and a defence having a good run of it — and a figure that tends to drift back toward the middle, which is worth remembering before reading too much into it.
A high-scoring home side
One model here does nothing but estimate how likely the home side is to score four goals or more, and on this fixture it reads 64.3%. Across our settled fixtures that happens about 8% of the time, so this is well above ordinary. It says nothing about who wins — a side can score four and still be caught — but a match where one team is expected to run up a total is one where the scoreline is much harder to call than the result.