Red Star FC 93 vs Saint-Étienne
Our model puts a Saint-Étienne win at 37.9% in this Ligue 2 fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.39 to 1.42.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,941 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.8% of the time — 717 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 1.8 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Evenly rated
There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1543 against 1567, a gap of 24 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Saint-Étienne's attack should find room against Red Star FC 93's defence, by 101 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Red Star FC 93 are on a run
Red Star FC 93 arrive on 4 straight wins, part of 4 matches unbeaten. Form of that length moves our rating on its own, so it is already reflected in the numbers above rather than being an argument on top of them.
Early or late
36.4% of Saint-Étienne's goals have come after the break, against 56.2% for the sides we measure, over 22 goals. A side that does its scoring early has more to protect than most, and a lead at the break is likelier to be the story of the match than the first act of it.