Real Sociedad II vs Almería
Our model puts an Almería win at 57.6% in this Segunda Division fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.02 to 1.91.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,941 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 50.7% of the time — 355 fixtures in that band. That is 8.8 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Real Sociedad II at 3.3, which implies about 30.3%. Our model has it at 20.1% — 10.2 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
The ratings gap
Almeria carry a rating of 1597 against 1475 for Real Sociedad II, a gap of 122 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Almería's attack should find room against Real Sociedad II's defence, by 175 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Almería are on a run
Almería arrive on 6 straight wins, part of 6 matches unbeaten. Form of that length moves our rating on its own, so it is already reflected in the numbers above rather than being an argument on top of them.
How often they shoot
Almería take 15.2 shots a match against an average of 11.9. Volume like that usually means territory rather than precision, and it is why a side can dominate a match and still not win it.