Newport County vs York City
Our model puts a Newport County win at 44.7% in this League Two fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.5 to 1.16.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,941 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.8% of the time — 717 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 1.8 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price York City at 1.91, which implies about 52.4%. Our model has it at 29.5% — 22.9 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
The ratings gap
York City carry a rating of 1489 against 1364 for Newport County, a gap of 126 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, York City's attack should find room against Newport County's defence, by 113 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Newport County are off their season peak
Newport County peaked at 1500 this season and sit at 1364 today, 136 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.
Finding the target
Newport County struggles to hit the target: 29.1% of their shots are on goal over their last matches. The average across the sides we have figures for is 34.1%. Accuracy is not the same as scoring — it says how much of a side's shooting is worth a goalkeeper's attention, which is the part that does not swing as wildly from week to week as goals do.
Behind the defence
75% of the shots on target Newport County face do not end up in the net, against 67.3% for the sides we measure. That is a keeper and a defence having a good run of it — and a figure that tends to drift back toward the middle, which is worth remembering before reading too much into it.