Newcastle United vs Aston Villa
Our model puts an Aston Villa win at 44.5% in this Premier League fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.32 to 1.63.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,941 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.8% of the time — 717 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 1.8 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Newcastle United at 2.25, which implies about 44.4%. Our model has it at 31.1% — 13.3 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Aston Villa's attack should find room against Newcastle United's defence, by 154 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.