New York City FC vs LAFC

Saturday, 17 October 2026 at 23:30

Win probability

33%

New York City FC wins

27%

Draw

40%

LAFC wins

xG Home

1.19

New York City FC

Blowout %

31%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.33

LAFC

Analysis

Our model puts a LAFC win at 39.9% in this MLS fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.19 to 1.33.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,941 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.8% of the time — 717 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 1.8 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Evenly rated

There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1479 against 1496, a gap of 17 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.

Market odds

2.75

New York City FC

3.40

Draw

2.35

LAFC

Published 16 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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