Leicester City vs Doncaster Rovers
Our model puts a Leicester City win at 52.4% in this League One fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.68 to 1.02.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,941 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 47% of the time — 596 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 2.5 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Leicester City are off their season peak
Leicester City peaked at 1580 this season and sit at 1524 today, 56 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.
Early or late
27.3% of Leicester City's goals have come after the break, against 56.2% for the sides we measure, over 11 goals. A side that does its scoring early has more to protect than most, and a lead at the break is likelier to be the story of the match than the first act of it.