Hamburg SV vs VfB Stuttgart
Our model puts a VfB Stuttgart win at 57% in this Bundesliga fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 0.95 to 1.8.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,941 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 50.7% of the time — 355 fixtures in that band. That is 8.8 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.
The ratings gap
VfB Stuttgart carry a rating of 1768 against 1601 for Hamburg SV, a gap of 167 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, VfB Stuttgart's attack should find room against Hamburg SV's defence, by 222 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.