Guadalajara vs Tigres UANL

Saturday, 17 October 2026 at 23:07

Win probability

54%

Guadalajara wins

26%

Draw

20%

Tigres UANL wins

xG Home

1.52

Guadalajara

Blowout %

40%

Dominant win

xG Away

0.79

Tigres UANL

Analysis

Our model puts a Guadalajara win at 54.4% in this Liga MX fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.52 to 0.79.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,941 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 47% of the time — 596 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 2.5 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Evenly rated

There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1493 against 1506, a gap of 13 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.

Market odds

1.83

Guadalajara

3.55

Draw

4.10

Tigres UANL

Published 16 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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