Everton vs Chelsea
Our model puts an Everton win at 39.4% in this Premier League fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.38 to 1.28.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,941 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.8% of the time — 717 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 1.8 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Chelsea at 2.15, which implies about 46.5%. Our model has it at 34.5% — 12 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
Evenly rated
There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1762 against 1790, a gap of 27 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Everton's attack should find room against Chelsea's defence, by 101 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Everton are hard to beat
Everton have gone 8 matches without losing, though without stringing wins together. That pattern tends to push draw probability up more than it pushes a win probability.
Chelsea are off their season peak
Chelsea peaked at 1869 this season and sit at 1790 today, 80 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.
Finding the target
Everton hits the target more often than almost anyone: 42.8% of their shots are on goal over their last matches; Chelsea struggles to hit the target: 27.8% of their shots are on goal over their last matches. The average across the sides we have figures for is 34.1%. Accuracy is not the same as scoring — it says how much of a side's shooting is worth a goalkeeper's attention, which is the part that does not swing as wildly from week to week as goals do.
Behind the defence
59.7% of the shots on target Chelsea face do not end up in the net, against 67.3% for the sides we measure. That is low enough to matter, and it is the kind of number that flatters or punishes a side's record without saying much about how it plays.