Derby County vs Stoke City

Saturday, 17 October 2026 at 14:00

Win probability

36%

Derby County wins

26%

Draw

38%

Stoke City wins

xG Home

1.30

Derby County

Blowout %

29%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.34

Stoke City

Analysis

Our model puts a Stoke City win at 37.8% in this Championship fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.3 to 1.34.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,941 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.8% of the time — 717 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 1.8 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Evenly rated

There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1503 against 1504, a gap of 1 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.

Market odds

2.85

Derby County

3.50

Draw

2.45

Stoke City

Published 16 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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