Crewe Alexandra vs Rochdale
Our model puts a Crewe Alexandra win at 61.8% in this League Two fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 1.83 to 0.78.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,941 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 50.7% of the time — 355 fixtures in that band. That is 8.8 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Rochdale at 4.0, which implies about 25%. Our model has it at 15.7% — 9.3 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
The ratings gap
Crewe Alexandra carry a rating of 1490 against 1363 for Rochdale, a gap of 127 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Crewe Alexandra's attack should find room against Rochdale's defence, by 109 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Crewe Alexandra are hard to beat
Crewe Alexandra have gone 8 matches without losing, though without stringing wins together. That pattern tends to push draw probability up more than it pushes a win probability.
Rochdale are off their season peak
Rochdale peaked at 1500 this season and sit at 1363 today, 137 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.
How often they shoot
Rochdale manage 8.8 shots a match, against an average of 11.9. A side that shoots this rarely has to take what it gets, which makes its scoring lumpier than its quality.