Colchester United vs Exeter City

Saturday, 17 October 2026 at 14:00

Win probability

45%

Colchester United wins

27%

Draw

28%

Exeter City wins

xG Home

1.42

Colchester United

Blowout %

38%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.06

Exeter City

Analysis

Our model puts a Colchester United win at 45.3% in this League Two fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.42 to 1.06.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,941 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 47% of the time — 596 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 2.5 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Evenly rated

There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1462 against 1463, a gap of 2 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.

Market odds

2.10

Colchester United

3.50

Draw

3.20

Exeter City

Published 16 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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