Bologna vs Internazionale
Our model puts an Internazionale win at 48.8% in this Serie A fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.12 to 1.62.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,941 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 47% of the time — 596 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 2.5 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Internazionale at 1.57, which implies about 63.7%. Our model has it at 48.8% — 14.9 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
The ratings gap
Inter Milan carry a rating of 1840 against 1714 for Bologna, a gap of 126 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Internazionale's attack should find room against Bologna's defence, by 244 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Internazionale are off their season peak
Internazionale peaked at 1904 this season and sit at 1840 today, 64 points below their own best. Measuring a side against itself rather than against the table is often the earlier signal, and it is not visible in a league position.
Finding the target
Bologna struggles to hit the target: 29% of their shots are on goal over their last matches. The average across the sides we have figures for is 34.1%. Accuracy is not the same as scoring — it says how much of a side's shooting is worth a goalkeeper's attention, which is the part that does not swing as wildly from week to week as goals do.