Atlante vs Pumas UNAM

Saturday, 17 October 2026 at 03:00

Win probability

41%

Atlante wins

24%

Draw

35%

Pumas UNAM wins

xG Home

1.64

Atlante

Blowout %

47%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.50

Pumas UNAM

Analysis

Our model puts an Atlante win at 41.1% in this Liga MX fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.64 to 1.5.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,941 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.8% of the time — 717 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 1.8 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Evenly rated

There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1496 against 1503, a gap of 6 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.

Market odds

2.55

Atlante

3.50

Draw

2.65

Pumas UNAM

Published 16 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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