1. FC Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund
Our model puts a Borussia Dortmund win at 56.3% in this Bundesliga fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 0.98 to 1.81.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,941 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 50.7% of the time — 355 fixtures in that band. That is 8.8 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Borussia Dortmund at 1.56, which implies about 64.1%. Our model has it at 56.3% — 7.8 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
The ratings gap
Borussia Dortmund carry a rating of 1823 against 1629 for 1. FC Union Berlin, a gap of 194 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Borussia Dortmund's attack should find room against 1. FC Union Berlin's defence, by 231 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Finding the target
1. FC Union Berlin hits the target more often than almost anyone: 40.9% of their shots are on goal over their last matches. The average across the sides we have figures for is 34.1%. Accuracy is not the same as scoring — it says how much of a side's shooting is worth a goalkeeper's attention, which is the part that does not swing as wildly from week to week as goals do.
Early or late
75% of 1. FC Union Berlin's goals have come after the break, against 56.2% for the sides we measure, over 16 goals. A side that scores this late is usually one that grows into matches or finishes them stronger than it starts — and one whose half-time score says less than usual about the result.