Leganés vs Córdoba
Our model puts a Leganés win at 51.5% in this Segunda Division fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.65 to 1.04.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,941 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 47% of the time — 596 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 2.5 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Córdoba at 2.6, which implies about 38.5%. Our model has it at 23.9% — 14.6 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Leganés's attack should find room against Córdoba's defence, by 105 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
How often they shoot
Córdoba take 17.7 shots a match against an average of 11.9. Volume like that usually means territory rather than precision, and it is why a side can dominate a match and still not win it.
A disciplinary record worth knowing
Córdoba collect 3.6 cards a match, on 17 fouls a match, against an average of 2.2. Cards are the one thing here that can change a match rather than describe it: a sending-off rewrites every number on this page.
Behind the defence
57.4% of the shots on target Córdoba face do not end up in the net, against 67.3% for the sides we measure. That is low enough to matter, and it is the kind of number that flatters or punishes a side's record without saying much about how it plays.