Le Mans vs Toulouse
Our model puts a Toulouse win at 46.2% in this Ligue 1 fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.18 to 1.58.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,941 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 47% of the time — 596 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 2.5 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
The ratings gap
Toulouse carry a rating of 1650 against 1527 for Le Mans, a gap of 123 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Toulouse's attack should find room against Le Mans's defence, by 158 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Finding the target
Le Mans hits the target more often than almost anyone: 44.9% of their shots are on goal over their last matches. The average across the sides we have figures for is 34.1%. Accuracy is not the same as scoring — it says how much of a side's shooting is worth a goalkeeper's attention, which is the part that does not swing as wildly from week to week as goals do.
Early or late
33.3% of Le Mans's goals have come after the break, against 56.2% for the sides we measure, over 18 goals. A side that does its scoring early has more to protect than most, and a lead at the break is likelier to be the story of the match than the first act of it.