Holstein Kiel vs Hertha Berlin
Our model puts a Holstein Kiel win at 38.9% in this 2. Bundesliga fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.35 to 1.26.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,941 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.8% of the time — 717 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 1.8 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Hertha Berlin at 2.2, which implies about 45.5%. Our model has it at 34.7% — 10.8 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Hertha Berlin's attack should find room against Holstein Kiel's defence, by 154 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Hertha Berlin are on a run
Hertha Berlin arrive on 5 straight wins, part of 8 matches unbeaten. Form of that length moves our rating on its own, so it is already reflected in the numbers above rather than being an argument on top of them.
A disciplinary record worth knowing
Holstein Kiel collect 3.7 cards a match, on 13.4 fouls a match, against an average of 2.2. Cards are the one thing here that can change a match rather than describe it: a sending-off rewrites every number on this page.
Early or late
81.2% of Hertha Berlin's goals have come after the break, against 56.2% for the sides we measure, over 16 goals. A side that scores this late is usually one that grows into matches or finishes them stronger than it starts — and one whose half-time score says less than usual about the result.