Energie Cottbus vs 1. FC Nürnberg
Our model puts an Energie Cottbus win at 42.8% in this 2. Bundesliga fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.63 to 1.4.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,941 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 38.8% of the time — 717 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 1.8 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price 1. FC Nürnberg at 1.8, which implies about 55.6%. Our model has it at 32.9% — 22.7 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
Evenly rated
There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1567 against 1580, a gap of 12 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Energie Cottbus's attack should find room against 1. FC Nürnberg's defence, by 94 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
1. FC Nürnberg are hard to beat
1. FC Nürnberg have gone 13 matches without losing, though without stringing wins together. That pattern tends to push draw probability up more than it pushes a win probability.