Annecy vs AS Nancy Lorraine
Our model puts an Annecy win at 59.4% in this Ligue 2 fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.88 to 0.92.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,941 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 50.7% of the time — 355 fixtures in that band. That is 8.8 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Annecy at 2.9, which implies about 34.5%. Our model has it at 59.4% — 24.9 points higher. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
How often they shoot
Annecy manage 9.8 shots a match, against an average of 11.9. A side that shoots this rarely has to take what it gets, which makes its scoring lumpier than its quality.
Early or late
33.3% of Annecy's goals have come after the break, against 56.2% for the sides we measure, over 12 goals. A side that does its scoring early has more to protect than most, and a lead at the break is likelier to be the story of the match than the first act of it.
Behind the defence
58.5% of the shots on target Annecy face do not end up in the net, against 67.3% for the sides we measure. That is low enough to matter, and it is the kind of number that flatters or punishes a side's record without saying much about how it plays.