Union St.-Gilloise vs Real Sociedad
Our model puts a Real Sociedad win at 39.3% in this UEFA Europa League fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.41 to 1.49.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,836 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 39% of the time — 694 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 1.5 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Union St.-Gilloise are hard to beat
Union St.-Gilloise have gone 11 matches without losing, though without stringing wins together. That pattern tends to push draw probability up more than it pushes a win probability.
A disciplinary record worth knowing
Real Sociedad collect 3.2 cards a match, on 13.2 fouls a match, against an average of 2.2. Cards are the one thing here that can change a match rather than describe it: a sending-off rewrites every number on this page.