Real Salt Lake vs San Jose Earthquakes
Our model puts a San Jose Earthquakes win at 41.8% in this MLS fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.35 to 1.54.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,849 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 39.3% of the time — 699 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 1.2 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Real Salt Lake at 1.87, which implies about 53.5%. Our model has it at 33.4% — 20.1 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
San Jose Earthquakes are hard to beat
San Jose Earthquakes have gone 7 matches without losing, though without stringing wins together. That pattern tends to push draw probability up more than it pushes a win probability.