Mansfield Town vs Oxford United

Thursday, 15 October 2026 at 19:00

📅This match has already taken place. The predictions above were generated before kick-off.

Win probability

45%

Mansfield Town wins

26%

Draw

29%

Oxford United wins

xG Home

1.47

Mansfield Town

Blowout %

39%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.12

Oxford United

Analysis

Our model puts a Mansfield Town win at 45% in this League One fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.47 to 1.12.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,836 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 47.7% of the time — 564 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 1.8 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Evenly rated

There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1508 against 1491, a gap of 18 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.

Market odds

2.30

Mansfield Town

3.55

Draw

2.95

Oxford United

Published 16 October 2026 · aleavici-football

Signed export