Lyon vs Crystal Palace
Our model puts a Lyon win at 43% in this UEFA Europa League fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.46 to 1.2.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,836 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 39% of the time — 694 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 1.5 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Evenly rated
There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1769 against 1764, a gap of 5 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.
Early or late
72.7% of Lyon's goals have come after the break, against 56.2% for the sides we measure, over 11 goals. A side that scores this late is usually one that grows into matches or finishes them stronger than it starts — and one whose half-time score says less than usual about the result.
Behind the defence
76.4% of the shots on target Lyon face do not end up in the net, against 67.3% for the sides we measure. That is a keeper and a defence having a good run of it — and a figure that tends to drift back toward the middle, which is worth remembering before reading too much into it.