Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen
Our model puts a Bayer Leverkusen win at 58.7% in this UEFA Europa League fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 0.94 to 1.87.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,836 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 51.1% of the time — 327 fixtures in that band. That is 8.5 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.
The ratings gap
Bayer Leverkusen carry a rating of 1828 against 1658 for Lech Poznan, a gap of 170 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Bayer Leverkusen's attack should find room against Lech Poznan's defence, by 174 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Bayer Leverkusen are on a run
Bayer Leverkusen arrive on 3 straight wins, part of 5 matches unbeaten. Form of that length moves our rating on its own, so it is already reflected in the numbers above rather than being an argument on top of them.
How often they shoot
Bayer Leverkusen take 20.3 shots a match against an average of 11.8. Volume like that usually means territory rather than precision, and it is why a side can dominate a match and still not win it.