LA Galaxy vs Portland Timbers

Thursday, 15 October 2026 at 02:30

📅This match has already taken place. The predictions above were generated before kick-off.

Win probability

47%

LA Galaxy wins

23%

Draw

30%

Portland Timbers wins

xG Home

1.83

LA Galaxy

Blowout %

54%

Dominant win

xG Away

1.40

Portland Timbers

Analysis

Our model puts a LA Galaxy win at 47.3% in this MLS fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.83 to 1.4.

What this probability has been worth

A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,849 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 46% of the time — 565 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 3.5 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.

Evenly rated

There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1494 against 1490, a gap of 3 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.

Market odds

2.00

LA Galaxy

3.80

Draw

3.10

Portland Timbers

Published 15 October 2026 · aleavici-football

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