Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Ararat-Armenia
Our model puts a Jagiellonia Bialystok win at 60.8% in this UEFA Europa League fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 2.13 to 1.07.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,836 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 51.1% of the time — 327 fixtures in that band. That is 8.5 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Jagiellonia Bialystok at 1.41, which implies about 70.9%. Our model has it at 60.8% — 10.1 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
A high-scoring home side
One model here does nothing but estimate how likely the home side is to score four goals or more, and on this fixture it reads 79%. Across our settled fixtures that happens about 8% of the time, so this is well above ordinary. It says nothing about who wins — a side can score four and still be caught — but a match where one team is expected to run up a total is one where the scoreline is much harder to call than the result.