CSU Craiova vs Getafe
Our model puts a Getafe win at 69.1% in this UEFA Conference League fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 0.89 to 2.35.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,836 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 65% and 75% came in 70.9% of the time — 172 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 69.4%, so the two are within 1.5 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Getafe at 2.45, which implies about 40.8%. Our model has it at 69.1% — 28.3 points higher. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
The ratings gap
Getafe carry a rating of 1650 against 1504 for CSU Craiova, a gap of 146 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, CSU Craiova's attack will struggle to break down Getafe's defence, by 155 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Finding the target
Getafe struggles to hit the target: 25.4% of their shots are on goal over their last matches. The average across the sides we have figures for is 34.1%. Accuracy is not the same as scoring — it says how much of a side's shooting is worth a goalkeeper's attention, which is the part that does not swing as wildly from week to week as goals do.
How often they shoot
Getafe manage 9.5 shots a match, against an average of 11.8. A side that shoots this rarely has to take what it gets, which makes its scoring lumpier than its quality.
A disciplinary record worth knowing
Getafe collect 3.4 cards a match, on 14.2 fouls a match, against an average of 2.2. Cards are the one thing here that can change a match rather than describe it: a sending-off rewrites every number on this page.