AFC Bournemouth vs SK Sturm Graz
Our model puts an AFC Bournemouth win at 82.7% in this UEFA Europa League fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 2.8 to 0.55.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,836 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 75% and 85% came in 80.6% of the time — 62 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 79.2%, so the two are within 1.5 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
The ratings gap
AFC Bournemouth carry a rating of 1794 against 1502 for SK Sturm Graz, a gap of 292 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, AFC Bournemouth's attack should find room against SK Sturm Graz's defence, by 224 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Early or late
41.2% of AFC Bournemouth's goals have come after the break, against 56.2% for the sides we measure, over 17 goals. A side that does its scoring early has more to protect than most, and a lead at the break is likelier to be the story of the match than the first act of it.
A high-scoring home side
One model here does nothing but estimate how likely the home side is to score four goals or more, and on this fixture it reads 75.8%. Across our settled fixtures that happens about 8% of the time, so this is well above ordinary. It says nothing about who wins — a side can score four and still be caught — but a match where one team is expected to run up a total is one where the scoreline is much harder to call than the result.