Slovan Bratislava vs VfB Stuttgart
Our model puts a VfB Stuttgart win at 65.4% in this UEFA Champions League fixture — the clearest call on this fixture. Expected goals run 0.81 to 2.04.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,849 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 65% and 75% came in 69.6% of the time — 168 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 69.4%, so the two are within 0.2 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price VfB Stuttgart at 1.3, which implies about 76.9%. Our model has it at 65.4% — 11.5 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
The ratings gap
VfB Stuttgart carry a rating of 1758 against 1517 for Slovan Bratislava, a gap of 241 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, VfB Stuttgart's attack should find room against Slovan Bratislava's defence, by 284 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.