Sarmiento (Junín) vs River Plate
Our model puts a Sarmiento (Junín) win at 38.4% in this Liga Profesional Argentina fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.49 to 1.46.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,849 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 39.3% of the time — 699 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 1.2 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price River Plate at 1.65, which implies about 60.6%. Our model has it at 36.9% — 23.7 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
Evenly rated
There is almost nothing between these two on rating — 1507 against 1515, a gap of 8 points. Fixtures this evenly matched are where a model has least to say: the probabilities below are honest, but they are close to a coin weighted only slightly.