Portsmouth vs Sheffield United
Our model puts a Portsmouth win at 37.6% in this Championship fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.28 to 1.23.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,849 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 39.3% of the time — 699 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 1.2 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Sheffield United's attack should find room against Portsmouth's defence, by 98 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Finding the target
Portsmouth struggles to hit the target: 29% of their shots are on goal over their last matches. The average across the sides we have figures for is 34.1%. Accuracy is not the same as scoring — it says how much of a side's shooting is worth a goalkeeper's attention, which is the part that does not swing as wildly from week to week as goals do.
Early or late
73.3% of Portsmouth's goals have come after the break, against 55.6% for the sides we measure, over 15 goals. A side that scores this late is usually one that grows into matches or finishes them stronger than it starts — and one whose half-time score says less than usual about the result.
Behind the defence
75.4% of the shots on target Sheffield United face do not end up in the net, against 67.4% for the sides we measure. That is a keeper and a defence having a good run of it — and a figure that tends to drift back toward the middle, which is worth remembering before reading too much into it.