Lincoln City vs West Ham United
Our model puts a West Ham United win at 49.3% in this Championship fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.19 to 1.71.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,849 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 45% and 55% came in 46% of the time — 565 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 49.5%, so the two are within 3.5 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price West Ham United at 1.71, which implies about 58.5%. Our model has it at 49.3% — 9.2 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
The ratings gap
West Ham United carry a rating of 1701 against 1607 for Lincoln City, a gap of 94 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, West Ham United's attack should find room against Lincoln City's defence, by 160 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.