Bodo/Glimt vs Borussia Dortmund
Our model puts a Borussia Dortmund win at 55% in this UEFA Champions League fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.03 to 1.8.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,849 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 50% of the time — 338 fixtures in that band. That is 9.6 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Bodo/Glimt at 3.0, which implies about 33.3%. Our model has it at 21.6% — 11.7 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
The ratings gap
Borussia Dortmund carry a rating of 1848 against 1723 for Bodø/Glimt, a gap of 125 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Borussia Dortmund's attack should find room against Bodo/Glimt's defence, by 257 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
Borussia Dortmund are hard to beat
Borussia Dortmund have gone 9 matches without losing, though without stringing wins together. That pattern tends to push draw probability up more than it pushes a win probability.