AS Roma vs Real Madrid
Our model puts a Real Madrid win at 42.8% in this UEFA Champions League fixture — close to a three-way split. Expected goals run 1.25 to 1.49.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,849 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 35% and 45% came in 39.3% of the time — 699 fixtures in that band. The model claimed 40.6%, so the two are within 1.2 points of each other. In this range the stated probability has meant roughly what it says.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Real Madrid at 1.95, which implies about 51.3%. Our model has it at 42.8% — 8.5 points lower. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
The ratings gap
Real Madrid carry a rating of 1932 against 1832 for AS Roma, a gap of 99 points. On our scale that is the difference between a side that controls most of its fixtures and one that has to earn each of them. It is also the single largest input into the probabilities above.
Attack against defence
The single rating hides where the mismatch actually sits. Splitting it, Real Madrid's attack should find room against AS Roma's defence, by 120 points. That is the mechanism behind the expected-goals line rather than a separate opinion about it.
AS Roma are hard to beat
AS Roma have gone 14 matches without losing, though without stringing wins together. That pattern tends to push draw probability up more than it pushes a win probability.
How often they shoot
Real Madrid take 16.2 shots a match against an average of 11.8. Volume like that usually means territory rather than precision, and it is why a side can dominate a match and still not win it.
Behind the defence
88.2% of the shots on target AS Roma face do not end up in the net, against 67.4% for the sides we measure. That is a keeper and a defence having a good run of it — and a figure that tends to drift back toward the middle, which is worth remembering before reading too much into it.