Wrexham vs West Bromwich Albion
Our model puts a Wrexham win at 57.6% in this Championship fixture — a moderate lean. Expected goals run 1.76 to 0.89.
What this probability has been worth
A number is worth what it has been worth. Across 1,876 predictions published before kick-off and scored against the result afterwards, the calls we priced between 55% and 65% came in 50% of the time — 342 fixtures in that band. That is 9.6 points below what the model claimed, so read this figure as optimistic: in this range it has been saying more than it could support. We publish the gap rather than quietly shading the number, because a record that only shows its good bands is not a record.
Where we disagree with the market
Bookmakers price Wrexham at 2.3, which implies about 43.5%. Our model has it at 57.6% — 14.1 points higher. That is a wide gap, and it is worth being plain about what it means: it is not a claim that the price is wrong and we are right. It means two methods that usually agree have landed far apart on this one, and only the result will say which of them read it better.
Behind the defence
59.1% of the shots on target Wrexham face do not end up in the net, against 67.4% for the sides we measure. That is low enough to matter, and it is the kind of number that flatters or punishes a side's record without saying much about how it plays.